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Medium-Term Oil Market Report 2012

Annual Statistical Supplement 2011

Special Supplement to the April 2011 OMR: The Mechanics of the Derivatives Markets

Natural Gas Liquids - Supply Outlook 2008 - 2015

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Reclassification of Oil Supply Data

Highlights of the latest OMR
dated: 14 May 2013

• Oil futures prices declined in April on seasonally weaker demand. Brent fell by around $6.10/bbl to $103.40/bbl amid a surplus of light, sweet grades in Europe, and last traded nearly unchanged at $103.10/bbl. In contrast, WTI inched down by just $0.90/bbl to an average $92.05/bbl, and by early May bounced back up to $95.50/bbl.
  
  
• The WTI-Brent futures price spread fell to its narrowest in more than two years, contracting to about $7.75/bbl in early May from an average $11.35/bbl in April, $16.58/bbl in March and $20.75/bbl in February.
  
  
• The global oil demand forecast was raised by a marginal 65 kb/d for 2013, to 90.6 mb/d, due mainly to upward revisions to German gasoil data for 2012. The global growth forecast is unchanged at 795 kb/d.
  
  
• The non-OPEC supply forecast was raised by 50 kb/d to 54.5 mb/d for 2013 on rebounding output in South Sudan and strong North American oil sands and tight oil production. Annual growth remains projected at 1.1 mb/d after US and Australia data revisions raised the 2012 estimate by 0.1 mb/d.
  
  
• OPEC crude production rose by 200 kb/d to 30.70 mb/d in April, led by Iraq. The ‘call on OPEC crude and stock change’ for 2Q13 fell by 400 kb/d to 28.9 mb/d on higher OPEC NGLs and non-OPEC supplies. OPEC ministers gather in Vienna on 31 May to review the market outlook.
  
  
• OECD commercial oil stocks built by a counter-seasonal 14.9 mb in March, to 2 658 mb, after a steep Japanese build helped lift crude stocks by 32.4 mb. On a forward-cover basis, OECD product stocks fell by 0.6 day, to 31.2 days. Preliminary data suggest total oil stocks built by a further 27.7 mb in April.
  
  
• Global refinery runs will jump by an unusually steep 3.6 mb/d from April – the likely peak in seasonal maintenance – to August, thanks in part to new Saudi capacity and recovering throughput at Venezuela’s Amuay plant after a 2012 fire. March runs exceeded expectations, following strong February margins and a Brent price dip.

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