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Highlights
of the latest OMR
dated: 13 May 2008
NYMEX Light Sweet Crude futures were double levels of a year ago in early May, topping $126/bbl as strong demand from Asia and tight distillate markets pushed prices higher. Sentiment was further underpinned by crude outages, particularly in Nigeria and the North Sea. Refining margins rose in April, but remain volatile.
Global oil product demand has been lowered for both 2007 and 2008, to 85.8 mb/d and 86.8 mb/d respectively. Slower economic growth, high prices and 2006 baseline adjustments suggest that OECD oil demand will contract for the third successive year in 2008. Non-OECD demand growth in 2008, led by China and the Middle East, remains strong at 3.7% or 1.4 mb/d, leaving growth for the world as a whole at 1.2% (+1.0 mb/d).
April global oil supply fell by 400 kb/d month-on-month to 86.8 mb/d, pulled lower by North Sea outages, lower FSU output and weaker OPEC supplies. Although 1Q08 non-OPEC supply (ex-Angola and Ecuador) was unchanged from a year ago, OPEC supply stood 1.7 mb/d higher. Non-OPEC output growth in 2008 is now seen averaging 680 kb/d, compared with 550 kb/d in 2007.
OPEC April crude supply averaged 31.9 mb/d, 255 kb/d below March. Strike action and pipeline sabotage cut Nigerian April supply by 150 kb/d to 1.9 mb/d. Effective OPEC spare capacity stands at 2.3 mb/d on paper, although refinery outages, crude quality and high prices mean much of this oil would be difficult to market under current conditions.
End-March OECD industry stocks dipped by 1.3 mb. Together with a 19.0 mb downward revision to distillate stocks in February, this draws 1Q08 stocks by 18.7 mb or 0.2 mb/d - slightly less than the 0.4 mb/d five-year average draw. Stock cover was broadly unchanged in March at 53.3 days.
April global refinery
crude throughput 72.8 mb/d is seen as a seasonal trough, with output stifled by poor economics and maintenance. Runs should rise through the second quarter to meet driving season demand, however recent improvements in Atlantic Basin gasoline supply are expected to keep margins volatile.
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