|
Highlights
of the latest OMR
dated: 11 June 2009
Crude futures were up $10 in May, averaging $60/bbl and reached $10/bbl higher by early June. The bull-run appears largely driven by perceived global economic recovery, with prices also recently underpinned by rising refinery throughput. OPEC’s late-May decision to maintain current production targets added further support to markets.
Forecast global oil demand is adjusted up 120 kb/d for 2009 following stronger-than-expected 1Q09 OECD data. Global oil demand is projected at 83.3 mb/d, -2.9% or -2.5 mb/d compared with 2008. These revisions do not necessarily imply economic recovery, but may reflect a slowing in previously sharp decline.
2009 non-OPEC supply is revised up 170 kb/d on stronger growth at new Russian fields, more robust North Sea production and higher crude output in Colombia. Year-on-year, it is now expected to decline 100 kb/d to 50.5 mb/d. Global May oil supply edged down 210 kb/d from April to 83.7 mb/d. A non-OPEC decline of 370 kb/d, entirely in OECD countries, outstripped higher OPEC output.
OPEC crude oil production in May again increased, by 160 kb/d to 28.4 mb/d. OPEC-11 output rose 110 kb/d, to 26.0 mb/d, about 1.1 mb/d over the group’s 24.85 mb/d target. OPEC opted to hold output targets steady at its 28 May meeting in Vienna. The call on OPEC crude and stock change is cut 0.2 mb/d to 27.7 mb/d for 2009.
Forecast global 2Q09 crude runs are raised 0.2 mb/d to 71.3 mb/d, as a result of higher April preliminary data in OECD countries, reports of high crude runs in China and marginally stronger global demand. But 3Q09 crude runs are forecast at 72.8 mb/d, representing an annual decline of 1.2 mb/d.
OECD industry stocks rose by 10.4 mb in April to 2,753 mb, 7.5% above a year ago. Higher North American inventory outweighed lower stocks in both Europe and the Pacific. Yet, end-April forward demand cover fell slightly to 62.0 days with rising seasonal demand, albeit still 7.5 days above a year ago.
All
of the graphs on the site are in PDF.
Please
Download Adobe Acrobat Reader
Send your
comments to: IEA webmaster
© OECD/IEA
2009. All rights reserved.
Read
disclaimer. |
