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Highlights of the latest OMR
dated: 12 June 2013

  • Futures prices for benchmark grades traded in a narrow range in May and edged lower in early June. Bearish market sentiment prevailed throughout most of May against the backdrop of a more anaemic economic outlook. Brent last traded at $102.15/bbl while WTI was pegged at $94.50/bbl.

  • The forecast of global oil demand growth is little changed at 785 kb/d (0.9%) for 2013. Absolute demand estimates have been trimmed on account of revised historical data for Russia.

  • Global supplies edged lower by 90 kb/d m-o-m to 91.2 mb/d in May on Canadian maintenance, but rose by 180 kb/d y-o-y, led by OPEC NGLs and non-OPEC supply. Maintenance will cut North Sea supplies from 3.0 mb/d in 1Q13 to 2.6 mb/d in 3Q13. Non-OPEC supply growth is forecast at 1.1 mb/d for 2013, unchanged since last month.

  • OPEC crude oil supply in May rose by 135 kb/d to 30.89 mb/d, a seven-month high. Increased output from Saudi Arabia, Iran, the UAE and Kuwait was partially offset by reduced supplies from Iraq, Libya and Nigeria. The ‘call on OPEC crude and stock change’ for 2H13 was trimmed by 200 kb/d to 29.8 mb/d due to lower demand expectations.

  • The seasonal ramp-up in global crude throughputs is expected to be steeper than normal this year, with runs increasing by 2.2 mb/d from 2Q13 to 3Q13. That seasonal increase, centred in the non-OECD, is due to new Saudi distillation capacity, increasing Chinese runs after heavy spring maintenance, and recovering throughput at Venezuela’s Amuay plant after a 2012 fire.

  • OECD commercial oil stocks built by seasonal 16.7 mb in April, to 2 680 mb, led by crude oil, NGLs and refinery feedstocks. On a forwardcover basis, OECD product stocks fell seasonally by 0.2 days, to 30.6 days. Preliminary data suggest total oil stocks built by a further 11.1 mb in May.
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