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Medium-Term Oil Market Report 2014

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Highlights of the latest OMR
dated: 11th September 2014

  • Oil prices fell sharply in August, weighed down by abundant supplies and further indications of slow global economic and oil–demand growth. ICE Brent futures tumbled below $100/bbl on 8 September for the first time in over a year and were last trading at $98/bbl. NYMEX WTI was around $91.40/bbl.

  • Global oil demand growth for 2014 and 2015 has been curbed to 0.9 mb/d and 1.2 mb/d, respectively, to reach 93.8 mb/d in 2015. A pronounced slowdown in demand growth in 2Q14 and a weaker outlook for Europe and China underpin the downward revisions.

  • Global supply was down 400 kb/d in August, to 92.9 mb/d, on lower non-OPEC production. Compared with a year ago, global supply was 810 kb/d higher, with an increase in non-OPEC of 1.2 mb/d more than offsetting a 370 kb/d OPEC decline. Non-OPEC supply is set to expand by 1.6 mb/d in 2014, and 1.3 mb/d in 2015, to reach 57.6 mb/d.

  • OPEC production fell by 130 kb/d in August to 30.31 mb/d as a steady recovery in Libya failed to offset lower supply from Saudi Arabia and Iraq. The ‘call on OPEC crude and stock change’ was lowered by 200 kb/d for 4Q14 to 30.6 mb/d and 300 kb/d for 2015 to 29.6 mb/d on a weaker demand outlook and robust non-OPEC supply growth.

  • OECD industry inventories built seasonally by 15.5 mb in July, to 2 670 mb, on soaring US ‘other products’ stocks. Preliminary data indicate that stocks continued on their upward trajectory during August, rising by 19.5 mb, further cutting the deficit to the five-year average which stood at 57 mb/d at end-July.

  • Global refinery crude throughputs surged by more than 2 mb/d over July and August to a seasonal peak of 78.7 mb/d before autumn maintenance curbed activity again from September. Global crude runs projections for 2H14 are largely unchanged since last month’s Report, averaging 77.9 mb/d in 3Q14 and 77.5 mb/d in 4Q14.

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