Highlights of the latest OMR
dated: 12 June 2013
Futures prices for benchmark grades traded in a narrow range in
May and edged lower in early June. Bearish market sentiment
prevailed throughout most of May against the backdrop of a more
anaemic economic outlook. Brent last traded at $102.15/bbl while
WTI was pegged at $94.50/bbl.
The forecast of global oil demand growth is little changed at 785 kb/d
(0.9%) for 2013. Absolute demand estimates have been trimmed on
account of revised historical data for Russia.
Global supplies edged lower by 90 kb/d m-o-m to 91.2 mb/d in May on Canadian maintenance, but rose by 180 kb/d y-o-y, led by OPEC
NGLs and non-OPEC supply. Maintenance will cut North Sea supplies
from 3.0 mb/d in 1Q13 to 2.6 mb/d in 3Q13. Non-OPEC supply growth
is forecast at 1.1 mb/d for 2013, unchanged since last month.
OPEC crude oil supply in May rose by 135 kb/d to 30.89 mb/d, a
seven-month high. Increased output from Saudi Arabia, Iran, the UAE
and Kuwait was partially offset by reduced supplies from Iraq, Libya
and Nigeria. The ‘call on OPEC crude and stock change’ for 2H13 was
trimmed by 200 kb/d to 29.8 mb/d due to lower demand expectations.
The seasonal ramp-up in global crude throughputs is expected to be
steeper than normal this year, with runs increasing by 2.2 mb/d from
2Q13 to 3Q13. That seasonal increase, centred in the non-OECD, is due
to new Saudi distillation capacity, increasing Chinese runs after heavy
spring maintenance, and recovering throughput at Venezuela’s Amuay
plant after a 2012 fire.
OECD commercial oil stocks built by seasonal 16.7 mb in April, to
2 680 mb, led by crude oil, NGLs and refinery feedstocks. On a forwardcover
basis, OECD product stocks fell seasonally by 0.2 days, to
30.6 days. Preliminary data suggest total oil stocks built by a further
11.1 mb in May.