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Highlights of the latest OMR
dated: 12th August 2014

  • Crude prices fell in July and early August as weak OECD refinery runs in June offset concerns about escalating conflicts in Iraq, Libya and Ukraine. At the time of writing, ICE Brent was below $105/bbl on hopes that US air strikes would lower disruption risks in major OPEC producer Iraq. WTI was around $98/bbl.

  • The global oil demand growth forecast for 2014 has been lowered to 1.0 mb/d on lower-than-expected 2Q14 deliveries and a weaker GDP outlook from the IMF. Growth is set to accelerate to 1.3 mb/d in 2015 as the economy improves. Baseline demand estimates have been raised to reflect new 2012 non-OECD annual data.

  • Global supply was up 230 kb/d in July, to 93.0 mb/d, with higher OPEC output offsetting slightly lower non-OPEC supply. Compared with a year ago, global supplies were 840 kb/d higher, with an increase of 1.2 mb/d in non-OPEC supplies more than offsetting a 360 kb/d decline in OPEC output.

  • OPEC crude oil supply rose by 300 kb/d to 30.44 mb/d in July, a five-month high, as a boost from Saudi Arabia to 10 mb/d and a tentative recovery in Libyan output more than offset losses in Iraq, Iran and Nigeria. The ‘call on OPEC crude and stock change’ averages around 30.8 mb/d in 4Q14, steady on 3Q14.

  • OECD industry stocks posted their sixth consecutive monthly build in June, rising 13.8 mb to stand at 2 671 mb at end-month, their highest level since September 2013. Inventories’ deficit to the five-year average narrowed to 42.1 mb from 52.0 mb at end-May. The 2Q14 stock build of 88 mb was the largest quarterly build since 3Q06.

  • Global refinery activity saw diverging trends in June. A counter-seasonal fall in OECD throughputs contrasted with record highs in key non-OECD countries. Global refinery runs are estimated at 76.5 mb/d for 2Q14, up 1.3 mb/d year-on-year, and 0.2 mb/d higher than in our last Report. Projections for 3Q14 are unchanged at 77.8 mb/d.

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