Medium-Term Oil Market Report – June 2009

This fourth edition of the IEA Medium-Term Oil Market Report (MTOMR) confronts an economic landscape unrecognisable from that seen at the time of the release of the summer 2008 edition. Crude prices are now 55% lower as financial and economic meltdown have slashed demand, with worldwide contraction in oil use at levels not seen since the early 1980s. But how long will the downturn last, and what is the likely profile of global and regional demand recovery when economic rebound eventually takes root? Has almost a decade of rising prices and costs changed the demand-side blueprint and forced the world onto a lower oil intensity path for the period through 2014?

Equally importantly, the report identifies the impact that weaker demand, low prices and a credit squeeze are having on supply-side investment in upstream OPEC/non-OPEC supply, biofuels capacity and refining infrastructure alike. The 2009 edition of the MTOMR also delves into the issues of diversifying FSU crude exports, evolving crude and product qualities, the importance of petrochemical markets and perceptions on oil price formation in the down-cycle. Two demand scenarios are presented based on differing economic growth assumptions, with a lower non-OPEC supply scenario also accompanying the lower GDP case. Summary oil balances highlight how OPEC spare capacity could develop during 2008-2014. This year, the MTOMR also consolidates analysis of future crude availability and trade flows, refining capacity and oil products supply implications under one cover.

The MTOMR remains required reading for policy makers, market analysts, industry participants and anyone with an interest in oil market trends. It contains detailed statistical appendices and a wealth of insightful graphics. Alongside its monthly sister publication, the Oil Market Report, the MTOMR is a cornerstone of the IEA commitment to enhancing oil market transparency.

Pricing and Ordering Information

Subscribers to the IEA Oil Market Report (OMR) will receive the Medium-Term Oil Market Report (MTOMR) as part of their subscription. New OMR subscriptions are available for 3,100, and include the monthly report from July 2009 until December 2010, and both the mid-year 2009 and 2010 issues of the MTOMR. If you wish to subscribe please place your order on the OMR website:

Individual copies of the MTOMR, available in PDF only, can be ordered on the IEA Online Bookshop on Monday 29 June at 10:30:, and afterwards. The cost for the single-user licence will be 400.